Fun With Numbers: Memphis Mayor's Race Department

FOX13 just released their own poll on the Memphis mayor's race but it is, as the two previous Commercial Appeal polls were, generally useless.

If you look at the only piece of hard data on the poll, it's a +/- 7% margin of error (MoE). Such a large error margin is usually not a good sign, so I called Yacoubian Market Research, the folks hired to conduct the poll, to get more information. Turns out, the sample size (the number of people asked the poll questions) was just 300. That's a very small sample size, one prone to a lot of error in its results. Hence, the 7 percent MoE.

Berje Yacoubian was satisfied by it. He pointed out that the only real result you could draw from the poll, the FOX13 story notwithstanding, was that Herenton was in trouble. His support has slipped dramatically. "Over a year, his popularity is low and sinking."

He said that this poll was meant primarily as a baseline against which polls between now and election day can be compared. "I'm not trying to figure out who is going to win or lose."

The numbers in the poll that matter (outside of the "Who would do a better job?" stuff)

He did offer some interesting observations based both on his thirty years of polling and what he's learned in this election cycle:

1. White voters break out 52% for Chumney and 20% for Morris. As the number of undecideds dwindles as we approach the election, that's bad news for Morris.

2. Chumney seems to be the choice of the not-Herenton voter. Morris isn't getting what Yacoubian considers his "expected level of support."

3. Conversely, he notes that as Chumney weakens, a possible trend in the flawed Commercial Appeal polls, Morris does benefit, although that's an obvious "last man standing" artefact.

4. Yacoubian expects Herenton to wait until September to launch a "four week campaign." It will dramatically change the race, and not to Herenton's benefit as voters will be forced to consider what Herenton's done up to now.

The poll did find that Morris is the second choice of most voters, some encouraging news to Morris supporters. Anything that cripples Herenton or Chumney stands to benefit him. But with such a large MoE, Herenton and Chumney are in a dead heat (something the Commercial Appeal poll found) and Morris is just below the MoE compared to both. Without a larger, better poll, it's pretty much anyone's game right now.

Yacoubian also didn't have kind words for the Commercial Appeal polls. He felt they traded their "neutrality for cheerleading. They made news so they could report it."

I agree with him. Wharton was not a candidate. He did not pull an application at any time. He had expressly stated he wasn't a candidate and wouldn't stab his good friend Herenton in the back. He was very happy as County Mayor, a position he felt (with some justification) was superior to the City Mayor. He and Herenton had a long personal history that Wharton would have had to callously jettison and then repudiate in order to run a campaign. For the Commercial Appeal to have pushed him as a possible candidate was partisanship of the strongest kind.

For the Commercial Appeal to have included him in the polls was just the worst kind of pot-stirring, a kind of underhanded journalistic story-making that Chris Peck should deplore. At a past Dutch Treat Luncheon, editor Blake Fontenay defended it as just reflecting the public's stated wishes. I didn't buy it then, and would be harder pressed today to buy it. They were ginning up a slim, dim fantasy.

The Commercial Appeal always claims to "tell the stories of Greater Memphis." But it has absolutely turned a blind eye to the most obvious story of all. For all that the campaign coverage has focused on the foibles and follies of Mayor Herenton, and for all the coverage given to his erstwhile opponents -- both real and imagined -- Herenton is still the man to beat. The story is his strength as the incumbent. Barring surprise or shock, he's going to win. But you don't see too much of that in the Commercial Appeal, do you?

You should wonder why.

It has bothered me to no end to see the reporters in this city make the most absurd statements about some of these polls. Jackson Baker and Richard Thompson have been among the worst, but let's not leave out the Commercial Appeal editorial staff.

Even when a poll's margin of error is 4%, Baker and Thompson have both referred to changes of less than the MoE as if they were actual evidence of real, concretely measured, results. Jackson Baker I know should know better because we've previously discussed this very thing. But no, he'll happily cheerlead for Carol Chumney anyway:

I had just seen a report on Fox 13 News about a fresh poll taken by my friend Berje Yacoubian showing Chumney to be leading a second-place Herenton and a third-place Herman Morris.

Nope. As we've just discussed, her "lead" is only half of the MoE, meaning it's anyone's guess who is ahead in that poll.

I mean really, is it so hard, so expensive for these folks to head on down to any bookstore and just pick up a standard text on statistics? They don't even have to read the whole thing! Just the first few chapters should give them enough understanding to make their analysis useful instead of ridiculous. Heck, eve a good used bookstore ought to have something, if money's an issue. Or do I have to embarrass them by making a gift of a book and then posting a picture of me making the presentation here on Half-Bakered?

Because you know I will.

Political Self-Image

Interesting numbers in this Rasmussen Report poll. It provides some insight into how Democrats and Republicans veiw themselves and makes plain some voter confusion.

Rasmussen found that 61% of Republicans found "conservative" a positive term of description. That rose to 74% for "like Reagan. That seems to show a clear self-identification among Republicans, and some clarity of ideology.

Among Democrats, only 32% consider "liberal" a positive descriptor, although it climbs to 42% if you apply "progressive." It makes you wonder what a Democrat considers a good self-description. Or it may be decades of demonisation of "liberal" by Republicans is paying off to an incredible degree.

What's weird is that 26% of Republicans think progressive is a positive description! In the immortal words of Fezzik, "You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."

Historically, (capital-p) Progressive has a specific meaning, in that it refers to failed defunct political parties. It also refers to the political movement dating back to the 19th century, started by Christian reformers. It later morphed into a political movement in the Twenties and Thirties dominated by Communist dupes and Soviet agents.

I guess we're far enough along that those meanings are largely forgotten by enough people to make a safe haven for modern Democrats to adopt it. But why Republicans like it? I can't say. Maybe there's a new latent strain of activist conservatism waiting to bloom in reaction to the piggery and elitism of the current Republican leadership?

Why I Hate Registration

Having to register with a website so they can prevent spam comments is understandable, but when the folks making you register then turn around and use their database to spam you, well, that's a circle of hell I hope these marketers get well acquainted with.

It's been annoying in recent weeks to have Memphis Flyer spam showing up in my mailbox unasked for. For folks who love to trade off the image of young, hip and alternative it's so very uncaring corporate tool for them to do this. If I want to read your website, I'll go there. You'll know it because my little cookie will tell you so.

Quit sending me unasked-for email like some desperate street corner whore flashing her wares. Even the Commercial Appeal doesn't do it. Sheesh.

Minimum Wage, Maximum FUD

Since I've been on hiatus, the minimum wage hike has been in the news. I only have a couple of comments on it by this point, so I'll peg them to this Commercial Appeal editorial from local activist Rebekah Jordan.

She conveniently uses some distorted numbers, for one:

According to the Economic Policy Institute, about 153,000 Tennesseans will directly benefit from the raise, and another 294,000 workers in our state will benefit overall, because of pay raises many companies are likely to make in order to retain workers who are already earning around $7.25 an hour.

The actual numbers of people affected looks more like this:

In truth, very few Tennesseans actually have to live on a wage of $5.15 an hour. Only 1.5% of the state’s workforce—approximately 40,000 workers—is employed at minimum wage levels. Furthermore, the majority of Tennessee’s minimum wage earners are either teenagers living at home and working for weekend pocket money or married individuals working part-time to supplement their spouse’s income....

Of Tennessee’s 40,000 minimum wage earners, fewer than 4,800 are single parents.

Speaking as someone who has worked in the minimum wage world most of his life (both as an hourly and as management) I can tell you that very few fast food workers only get paid the minimum wage. Most wages start at $7 and hour and go up from there. Most warehouse, general labor jobs start at $10, or more.

So why all the self-serving misdirection from folks like Jordan? Simple: election year politics.

Nearly every union in America has its wage structures pegged to the minimum wage. Raise the minimum and you raise their wages. That's where Jordan's numbers come from, union workers who will benefit from the hike.

That's why, in the political announcements last week from legislators on the minimum wage hike, you saw so many union workers sharing the stage and union banners hanging behind podiums. It's all about placating and paying off the base.

The Presumption of Guilt?

LeftWingCracker falls into a common trap in this post about Michael Vick, the NFL player who is indicted for running a pit bull fighting ring.

He says:

The first thing you have to do is remember that, like all defendants, Michael Vick is innocent until PROVEN guilty by a jury of his peers.

Then, go read the indictment, and THEN tell me that. OK, it's only an indictment....

In a word: No. In a court of law, yes, you are entitled to the presumption of innocence. It's a deeply rooted principle of American justice because at one time English justice meant bringing charges was a presumption of guilt (else why the charges?) and you had to prove your innocence. That led to all kinds of abuses.

It's also a protection. Protecting citizens from government action (which is often incontestable) based on pre-trial feelings is important. Otherwise, possibly innocent people can lose pensions, benefits, jobs, careers, etc. You can literally lose your freedom and your life.

For example, a lot of folks wanted to toss Edmund Ford from the City Council as soon as indictments against him were handed down. The voters of Ed Ford's district would lose representation for the time between his being removed from office and a new person being voted in. That's an unaddressable wrong.

But in the court of public opinion, the First Amendment reigns. We are free to think and say whatever we want based on what's in front of us and how we feel about it.

Vick's employers and sponsors are perfectly free to disassociate themselves, as it's all private contracts. No need to wait. If it turns out they did so wrongly, or prematurely, then Vick is free to pursue redress in a court of law and get compensated. It is, as they say, only money.

LWC doesn't need to twist himself all up and make insincere genuflection to some misunderstood principle. This is America and he's free to say what he wants here.

But LWC seemingly wants to punish Vick NOW. He seemingly wants to waste no time in condemning Vick's actions, rather than waiting to see what's what. He wants to abhor not just with the force of his indignation, nor the force of public condemnation, but with something more. Something like the force of law, which LWC apparently thinks is too slow and hesitant.

Thank goodness for that! Conflating personal outrage with legal consequences is a very dangerous and volatile weapon. I'd hate to be in Vick's position and have someone like LWC leading the prosecution.

Coolest Picture You'll See Today

Hanging the moon in the sky.

Link via Instapundit.

Herenton Confirms Public Perceptions

Mayor Herenton is widely cast as someone who stays within the safe walls of his hard-to-access office downtown and his home in a gated community out east. His antipathy for the media is sometimes put away for limited interviews in controlled circumstances, usually in response to some high-profile situation involving City government.

And in this Commercial Appeal story:

"Is the mayor soft on crime? If you want to find a mayor who's tough on crime then you want Willie Herenton."

Herenton, who is running for a fifth term on Oct. 4, said he will be attending more such press conferences than he has in the past and that he will continue to do so after the election.

"You're going to see a lot of me," the mayor said.

I also find it very interesting that he's confirming public fears of drug crime, and tacitly admitting he's in a campaign. He must have some kind of nervousness if he's actually out there touting himself now, instead of continuing with his prior behavior.

I believe we can call this the first crack in the wall.

Your Shin Chan for Today

Shin Chan's parents are having a paper blow-dart competition and are trying to decide who goes first:

Mom: I defer. After all, I'm using to waiting for you.

Dad: So ... we're playing by bedroom rules, are we?

Headline, Meet Story

The "new" Commercial Appeal has long had a problem with information-free headlines, but this, I think, is a new one: the headline contradicts the story!

Price tag may scuttle Liberty Bowl rehab dreams it says boldy at the top. That's why I clicked. Has something come up that will force either a new stadium to be built, or will we just have to make do with the current one for those two or three games a year when we need it?

But then the story bafflingly continues:

When University of Memphis officials met with national consultants to present their wish list for a new football stadium, "It was like being with Santa Claus," said athletic director R.C. Johnson. "They said, 'What do you want?' "

But Johnson knows Christmas may not come -- the city's proposed new stadium on the Mid-South Fairgrounds could be financially doomed by such factors as the skyrocketing cost of steel and strong sentiment against building anything less than a state-of-the-art facility....

"We may end up having to rehab" 42-year-old Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium.

It seems that the story and the headline should at least have a passing acquaintance, yes?

Separated at Birth?

Phyllis Diller and Bill Buckley:





Diller image via James Lileks.

Magic Trick

Found this picture online and the caption came to me immediately:





And now, with just the power of my mind, I will make this bulb glow! Wait for it ... wait for it ... wait for it ....

Main Street Journal Presents: July Dutch Treat Luncheon

When: Saturday, July 21; 11:30 AM - 12:45
Where: The Butcher Shop, Cordova (Germantown Parkway & Walnut Grove)
July Theme: The Role of New Media (Internet & Blogging) in Memphis Politics

July Panel:
Cameron Harper (Anchor and blogger, ABC24 and CW30)
Richard Thompson (former Commercial Appeal reporter and media blogger at Mediaverse-Memphis)
Steve Steffens (Blogger at Left-Wing Cracker)
Tom Jones (Blogger at Smart City Memphis)

Moderator: Jonathan Lindberg, Publisher, Main Street Journal


The oldest and most influential political gathering in Memphis for over 50 years. Come be a part of the dialogue that is shaping Greater Memphis.

Open to all. Great food. Shared community. Meaningful discussion.

Sponsored by the Main Street Journal
For more information about the luncheon visit http://www.mainstreetj.com.

Thought for the Day

Most people who smugly criticize America from abroad are European. If they angrily criticize America for what it did to their country, they're from South America or the Middle East. If they laugh at how much money they make off stupid Americans, they're from Asia.

From a fascinating discussion on high fructose corn syrup on Slashdot.

Adventures With MATA: In & Out

Regular readers know that Mr. Mike doesn't own a car. It's nothing legal. I have a valid driver's license and all. It's just that I made conscious decision about 15 years ago do do without. (Hah! All you middle-class liberal enviromentalists with your recycling and carbon credits can bite my bus pass!) Trying to get around courtesy of MATA can often be an adventure in itself.

Take the recent Memorial Day holiday. On the old MATA website notices about holiday bus schedules appeared on the front page. Not so now, thanks to the chucklehead who redesigned the website! Notices like that are on a deeper page for "News and Press Releases." If they appear. There was nothing about a changed schedule. Knowing better, I called the MATA number and after playing a frustrating game of "whack-a-button" got to a human who told me the changes. I pointed out the website didn't say anything about it and she didn't really care. Not her job. the website was never updated. Thanks MATA!

On June 10th, a whole lot of route change went into effect. New schedules aren't released in advance, so I went, once again, to the website where, on June 11th, they still didn't have the new route schedules posts. Some of these changes were important routes to me (2-Madison, 50-Poplar and 53-Summer) but it seemed the only way I'd learn the new routes was to make a special trip downtown to the North End Terminal. Or risk waiting a long time for a bus that might not be coming....

[Digression the first: Turns out, the Memphis Center for Independent Living right around the corner had the complete, updated library of schedules. Way to go, MCIL! And thanks to Mark for the pointer.]

So today, I'm waiting for the 2-Madison and it's already 10 minutes late. Across the street I see a 13-Lauderdale sitting full and motionless at the other stop. He's waiting for a replacement bus to show up because his crapped out. No idea when it was coming.

Mine shows up and I learn, to my surprise, that busses going out along 2-Madison are the same, but if they are incoming to downtown along that same route, they are now 13-Lauderdales. Which explains why that other bus was on Madison. Glad I learned that before I was out east near the UofM and let that 13-Lauderdale pass me by unknowing!

[Digression the second: Don't let the names fool you. Just because it's a 2-Madison doesn't mean it travels along Madison. Near the Downtown and the Medical District it bounces around like a pinball in bumper city along all sorts of detours. Heck, the 53-Summer takes a sidetrip off Summer such that it's possible to be between two other bus-stop signs but not actually be on the route! Same with the 50-Poplar around the UofM area.]

Today's lesson: You really have to do your homework if you're going to ride the bus. And don't depend on MATA to help. That's not the office's job. (But the drivers are good about helping out.)

Welcome to Our Downtown Overlords

Thanks to Paul Ryburn for the mention! And welcome to the folks swinging by from there.

I ran into him yesterday at Otherlands. I've only recently discovered the place as somewhere fairly close by with large tables good for gaming and a quiet atmosphere. Prices are coffeeshop ridiculous -- $1.69 for a 20 oz. Coke -- but it's nice enough.

The board game Paul's talking about is Twilight Struggle. (Baord Game Geek page here.) It's a game about the Cold War, US versus USSR. Each superpower vies to control the other nations of the world via influence. You can also use Coups and Realignments. You win by either dominating the world or not being the one who start a thermonuclear war.

It's a type of board game called a "card driven wargame." Both players have a handful of cards that allow you to either take a number of actions or trigger the event on the card. There's nothing like hitting the US with a "Red Scare" or thowing the "Marshall Plan" on the Soviets.

It's an absorbing and fun game with lots of tough decisions and some pretty high drama. In yesterday's game, I was the Soviets and had control of Japan! How's that for alternate history?

It's funny, too, that whenever that game is out on a table in public, folks always walk over to look at it. It never fails. Something about the big colorful map does it, I think.

Dr. Johnson: So Long and Thanks for All the Fish!

Richard Thompson of Mediaverse Memphis has a good round up of stories and links on Dr. Carol Johnson's sudden departure from the Memphis City School system here.

It's important to remember, I think, that she wasn't just plucked out of thin air. Like a lottery winner, she had to buy a ticket. She put her name into consideration some months ago. Some folks think it's the decision by the County Commission to not disburse some funds the MCS thought they were entitiled to that did it. But clearly she'd been disaffected before that.

I guess after she's gone, we'll hear from folks inside the MCS who are free to talk.

I also wonder what's going to happen to the Blue Ribbon Campaign. With the two main institutional boosters gone (Johnson and school board member Lora Jobe) who will back it now against those who view it as a mistake? (Count me in that column.) Any kind of confusion from the administration -- translated down to principals and teachers -- will automatically be picked up on by the kids in school and chaos will result. We may find ourselves forced to back away from BR whether we want to or not.

I've never agreed with BR simply because it requires a prior buy-in from the parents of the kids and, clearly, there's a wide swath of parents who just don't think that way, never have and never will. Or maybe that was the point? With a choice between a harsh, punishing home life and the wonderland of love and support in the schools, kids will gravitate to the schools, leaving the old life behind? Isn't that how cults work?

Was Dr. Johnson doing what some professionals do? She didn't really want another job, she just tossed her resume into the inbox to see how she stacked up against the competition. It's a kind of profesiional competition, a way of seeing if you still have the juice.

But the fact remains: Despite the tears and proclamations, she is leaving all "her kids" in the lurch. She's dumping them for money and status. Is that the message she wants her kids to learn? Her goodbye to the school board was full of kids, flowers, speeches and tears. Why? She knifed the kids in the back.

I have to wonder what might be going on. Where are the expressions of anger? Why isn't anyone closely associated with her pissed off? Is there an understory here?

Another Milestone Missed

I just happened to look at the Manage Posts page a little more closely and Blogger tells me I have 2505 posts on this blog! Wow.

Blogger used to tell you how many words you had written, but that went away several versions ago. I had something close to 500,000 words back then. I'd love to have that feature back because it used to give me a little frisson to know that in five (or four) years I'd managed to write enough for six novels. I'd be a mid-list author by now.

Sigh.... I could use those advances.

Anyway... 2500! Woo! Party!

Same As It Ever Was

Take a look at this front page from the Minneapolis newspaper in the 1920s. There are eight stories and seven have to do with scandal, tragedy, crime or violent crime. The last one is a sports story.

Does the modern Commercial Appeal even have eight stories on its above the fold front page any more? Truthfully, I couldn't tell you since I haven't looked at one in ages. If I check out the CA at all, it's online. But I do notice that the CA seems willfully cheerful, and its headlines are models of obfuscation and muddiness.

Notice how dense the Minneapolis paper's page is. That's a lot of information for you to absorb right there. The CA went the old USA Today route with large pictures and lots of white space.

But it's the subjects of the headlines, the focus on crime and scandal that should ring familiar. Doesn't it look like the evening news?

Our circumstances may change, but fundamental human nature is largely the same, decade after decade. People then are like people now. This I believe very firmly. Did you know that some of what we know about Greek history comes from the grafitti written on the walls of the public forums?

Do you know why perfume was invented? Europeans didn't take baths, so of course they stank like a barn. But they wanted to cover that smell to appeal to each other. Even though we today are hygenic, the habit contines, it's roots forgotten. People who are otherwise clean and fresh smelling cover that up with a chemical bath because it's what we do, because the body is filthy and smelly.

People want to know the crime and scandal of the day. It appeals to the part of our brain that is concerned with our place in the social heirarchy. We are status-oriented creatures, Alpha males watching out for the scheming Betas, Gammas hoping that misfortune will knock aside some Delta so we can move up a notch.

I suspect that's part of the reason that the newspaper is suffering locally. People are turning to television news for their fix of "today's social standings." Editor Chris Peck has set the CA on a course that lets readers know that it inhabits a higher, loftier plane, one that it will bring you up to if you but repent your ways. I can't tell the number of times some editorial has just reeked of "we watch what we say because we don't want to stir up those dangerously volatile masses." They are Better People who carry the White Man's Burden of bettering their inferiors.

They don't give the people what they want, but what "they" think "you" should have. Television news doesn't operate under any such restrictions and so it gives viewers what they want. One stays popular and the other withers away.

Is there a niche for what the CA does? Yes. Remember the "good news newspaper" Grit? Oh, you don't? Well, there you go.

Watching the CA move into niche-dom while believing it's found the path to wider readership, all the while cloaked in the belief that they are doing "good work," is not unlike watching Ignatius Reilly in The Confederacy of Dunces. It didn't end well for him, either.

Song Lyrics of the Day

Bright lights, the music gets faster.
Look girl, don't check on your watch --
Not another glance.
I'm not leaving now, honey, not a chance.

Hotshot, give me no problems.
Much later baby, you'll be saying never mind.
You know life is cruel; life is never kind.

Kind hearts don't make a new story.
Kind hearts don't grab any glory.

Bonus points if you can name this song without Googling! There are many versions of this. Which is your favorite?

The Mystic Knights of the Oingo Boingo

Aimless surfing on the Internet turned up this video of Oingo Boingo on the Gong Show! Ahhh, two great tastes in one bit of video.




I used to love this show because it was a complete goof all the way around. Nobody took anything about this show seriously, including host and producer Chuck Barris. He was perpetually genial, stoned and eternally uncomfortable. The celebrity panelists often got into fights over ringing the gong. The show always teetered between manufactured chaos and enervated ennui. Painful when it was bad, which was pretty often, but lunatic genius when everything was working.

Only thing in this clip missing was Gene, Gene the Dancing Machine.