Numbers? We Got Yer Numbers

Last week, the Mason Dixon Polling and Research firm released the first Seventh District-wide numbers in the Republican primary race. They were duly chewed over by the local prognosticators and analysts. Some points seem to have been missed, however.

Here are the numbers:

Marsha Blackburn - 25%
David Kustoff - 17%
Brent Taylor - 14%
Mark Norris - 11%
Forrest Shoaf - 7%
Undecided - 23%

Most took the obvious for their point: Blackburn has a commanding lead. But a deeper dig into those numbers yields a more cloudy picture.

First, the poll only queried 320 likely voters, a very small sample. This created a margin of error of 5.5%, a very important point overlooked by the commentators. Suddenly, Blackburn's lead becomes a statistical dead-heat, very much within that margin of error.

Those 23% Undecideds also are volatile. Depending on where those folks are located, their numbers can be a good news for Blackburn, if they are in the east end of the district, or good news for either Kustoff or Taylor, if they are clustered here in Shelby and Fayette County.

Clearly, a much larger sample will be needed before anything conclusive can yet be drawn.

Until next time, that is all.