Sunday, November 05, 2006

Corker: 50 / Ford: 38

According to the latest Mason-Dixon polls Corker is now running a 12 point lead over Harold Ford: 50/38. I tried locating the actual data on the M-D site, but no luck. Even with a 2-to-1 breakout for Ford among the Undecideds (based on a breakdown of data from another, Survey-USA poll), Corker still wins.

If this is true -- and another poll from the weekend repeats something like this gap -- this is incredible. Corker will become a legend.

If it's true. We shall see....

SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE: Found the link to a deeper look into the numbers and the methodology. For starters, the poll sample size is just over 600 people, which is small.

The poll also asks about the famous bimbo ad and the results pretty much put the kibosh to Democratic efforts to call it "racist."
Have you seen the television advertisement that mentions Harold Ford’s attendance at a Super Bowl party that featured Playboy bunnies and ends with a blonde-haired woman saying “Harold, call me?”

YES 81%

NO 19%

(IF “YES) Would you describe your opinion of the ad as favorable, unfavorable, or neutral?




(IF “YES) Would you say that the ad makes you more likely to vote for Bob Corker, more likely to vote for Harold Ford, or does it have no real effect on your vote?

FORD 10%


Take a look at the levels of support found in the poll across the three Grand Divisions of the state and you'll see that the conventional wisdom is true. Corker's support is very strong in the East (61%) and falls as you move West (to 39%) whereas Ford's is strongest in the West (49%; not even a majority!) and falls precipitously going East (to an incredible 26%!) Bear in mind, though, the large unreliability factor in these numbers.

And in all three of the "Who do you think would best handle ...?" questions (Iraq and the War on Terror; energy; the economy) Corker holds decisive leads where Ford struggles around 1/3 of the polled.

Just to add some confusion to the mix, according to the latest (this weekend) Rasmussen poll, it's still a statistical dead heat: Corker at 51, and Ford with 47. (Box at top right of page.)

And from our WTF? files, comes a real outlier poll, from Hamilton-Beattie that has Ford leading 46 to 40! If I remember correctly H-B is the firm that does internal polling for the Ford campaign, so deep skepticism is needed. This result matches no other polls I know of at this stage.

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