Deceptive Reporting

Today's Commercial Appeal carries an AP story (why not one written by the Nashville bureauman Richard Locker?) that is slightly misleading in its thrust.

Matt Gouras breathlessly notes that Governor Phil Bredesen personally approved some changes to a consent decree that he's now trying to have voided. It's... well, it's almost like he's a hypocrite!

Not so much. Bredesen tried to have a simple, immediate cost-saving measure implemented, one that would pass muster with both the court and the Tennessee Justice Center. It was a stop-gap measure before bigger changes to come. Smaller actions taken in the process of getting the larger goal don't negate the goal. So, it's a bit disingenuous to me.

On the other hand, the article does point up that Bredesen, for all his vaunted management skills and the centerpiece status of TennCare reform, is still floundering. Being a good business manager doesn't always translate into being an effective politician. The manager is used to expecting his will to be carried out, and to having subordinates fall in line. Politics, obviously, is nothing like that, as Bredesen is showing us. You can't order, you have to persuade; and even then you're going to fight a lot of other folks with their own agendas in the process.

Bredesen really is making a botch of his TennCare reforms. He's alienated a large number of his party-mates and has provided a spectacular opening for any Republican challenger next Fall. He no longer has Tennesseans lined up with him to accomplish the goal of TennCare reform; he's got a lot of special interests (many in his own party) lined up opposing him.

He could, of course, just sign an Executive Order ending TennCare, returning Tennesseans to the loving embrace of Medicaid, but that's sort of the nuclear option. Besides, he would find himself in Federal courts anyway, as the Tennessee Justice Center would move like lightning to oppose that. He's on more secure ground with abolishment, legally, but his chances of success are still in question and his chances of re-election would be zero.

Not to absolve the TJC of their share of the blame! They have been skillful in manuveuring themselves into the victim's seat under Bredesen, and they've been abetted by friends in government and the press. Remember the injuction filed by Judge William Haynes back in January? Nowhere did those stories mention how the injunction came to be. Judges don't just wake up one morning and decide to take action; they must first be presented with a motion to act upon. In the case of the January injunction, we were never told who initiated the appeal. I know because I was looking. It finally came out months later that it was the TJC after all. By keeping their name out of it, they were able to avoid the usual obstructionist press they get whenever they act.

Make no mistake. The TJC wants socialised healthcare for Tennessee. Having gotten it under McWhirter, they are doing everything possible to retain it. They will fight every attempt to slow its growth or modify it substantially. If they had their way, taxes would be raised to pay for TennCare as it exists now and you would just have to accept that.

There is a plan out there that would go a long way to rein in costs while only cutting a few thousand from TennCare rolls. They seem basic and sensible. I'm not informed enough on the issues and policies here to know how many of these ideas are being tried by Bredesen, nor whether they will have the cost-saving effects claimed. But they should be looked at first, and tried where advisable first. I don't think Bredesen is even doing that.

It's an opening for an enterprising Republican to use. Make real reform using the ideas of the reformers. Then, then, if TennCare is still ballooning and careering out of control, she the Republican candidate for governor can go ahead with the nuclear option in security.

But I doubt any Republican would. Party inertia, self-interest and the sclerotic hand of the Old Money boys at the top determines what happens, not bright thinking by the party's members. I suspect more than a few of the moneyed Republicans want a second Bredesen term, so they can make yet another run at enacting an income tax. A failing TennCare would only be an opportunity to revive that excuse from 2002. Letting Bredesen fail, rather than acting positively to rescue TennCare, serves their purposes better. Any candidate for governor will be stuck between wrestling the beast of TennCare reform and serving the Old Money Masters, which may explain why no one seems to be stepping up to run.

Watch between now and the Fall. If Beth Harwell passes, that's a sign. She has a good chance against Bredesen. If the Republicans runs an undistinguished or second-tier person, or worse yet a no-hoper, you'll have your answer. Bredesen is wide open to defeat right now, and as the "anti-gay marriage" contingent heats up coming into 2006 it will only get worse for him. But the Republican leadership is behaving as though he's a prohibitive force to reckon with. Maybe, if your name is Van Hilleary. But not for a fresh and energised candidate. The grassroots is ready to fight and only needs a leader to get behind.

As Bredesen continues to flounder and get outflanked by the TJC, this will only become more obvious.