Sunday, January 16, 2005

The 2020 Report: Duh

So the National Intelligence Council releases it latest look into the world's future and divines the following:

1. China and India will increase in importance. Maybe Indonesia and Brazil, too. Unless something surprising happens.
2. Globalisation will continue and raise all boats. Unless there's an unexpected economic event.
3. No big wars are likely to break out. Unless the unexpected happens.
4. Terrorism will continue.
5. The United States will slip a bit, but remain the world's dominant power. Unless something unexpected happens.

The report, which is supposed to look fifteen years ahead, merely describes the world we know right now. It could have been written by any competent person who follows world events. It's no wonder our intelligence establishment is such crap, if these are the kinds of minds we have at work.

Still, if you feel weak on international issues, this isn't a bad primer.

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