Reflective, Not Predictive
Some months ago, a great new website opened called Election Projection. It collected polling information from all across the nation down to the state and local level even, tracking the changes in voter preference in the upcoming Presidential election. They then created a "red/blue" map of the country, showing the current status. As the operators of the site said then, it was a reflection of the current status, and not a prediction of the election to come.
That didn't stop some Republicans from willfully not paying attention and start crowing about the huge landslide Bush was sure to have.
Here we are in mid-March, and things are different now! Kerry leads Bush by five percent and 34 electoral votes. The map is much more complex.
I think this is the point where I say things about chickens and eggs.